Poll of Polls: Two points separate Clinton and Trump
The Poll of Polls suggests a vastly different race than many anticipated.
Throughout March and April, public polling on the presidential race found Clinton well ahead of Trump, with the former secretary of state holding double-digit leads over the businessman in 10 out of the 14 polls that met CNN’s standards for reporting in those months.
A string of polls released in the last two weeks, however, suggest a much tighter contest. For the most part, those tightened margins come from a more unified Republican Party. Across the five polls included in the Poll of Polls, Clinton averaged 6% support among self-identified Republicans. Polls from the same organizations in late-March and April found Clinton averaging 12% support among Republicans.
Trump essentially locked up the Republican nomination for president in early May, when his final remaining rivals suspended their campaigns after Trump won the Indiana primary by a wide margin. Last week, Trump secured the support of enough unbound delegates to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold needed to win the nomination.
The Poll of Polls suggests that about 1-in-8 registered voters isn’t currently backing Clinton or Trump. Over the next five months, whether those voters can be convinced to support Clinton or Trump, decide to stay home or throw their backing to a third party candidate will be the key to the campaign.
The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the results of the five most recent nationwide polls of presidential preference among registered voters. The Poll of Polls includes: The CBS News/New York Times poll conducted May 13-17, the Fox News poll conducted May 14-17, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted May 15-19, the ABC News/Washington Post pollconducted May 16-19, and the Quinnipiac University Poll conducted May 24-30. The poll of polls does not have a margin of sampling error.